The Rockies Are Going to be Better than People Think

Pitchers and catchers report next week, which means real baseball is close, and the MLB prognosticators are living their best lives. Various crystal balls predict another grim season for the Rockies. Here are a few examples:

• ESPN's pre-season power rankings have them 29th.
• Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA rankings dropped on Tuesday, and they predict a 58-104 2024 for the Rockies.
• FanGraphs projects a league-worst 59-103 record.

I could go on, but you get the idea.

Reader, the odds are good that the Rockies are not going to be very good next season in terms of wins and losses, but these doomsday scenarios also overlook ways in which the Rockies have improved since 2023. With that in mind, here are five reasons to be more optimistic about the 2024 Rockies than the projections are.

They’ve Triaged Their Pitching Problem

It’s safe to refer to 2023 as a pitching disaster for the Rockies who lost Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John surgery. After suffering a skull fracture, Ryan Feltner also missed much of the season. The Rockies DFA’d José Ureña, who’d been ineffective, and set about cobbling together a rotation that came to include Chris Flexen, Chase Anderson, Connor Seabold, and Peter Lambert with Ty Blach taking an occasional start.

The result? A league-worst 5.91 ERA.

The Rockies spent the offseason fortifying their pitching. Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber will return. Ryan Feltner is healthy as is Peter Lambert. Plus, they have added Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson. None of these names will set the world on fire though if Quantrill can return to his 2022 form, he may be valuable to the team. He has said that last season he suffered shoulder discomfort, which affected his delivery and that his solid September is more representative of who he is as a pitcher.

In signing Hudson, who had been DFA’d by the St. Louis Cardinals, the Rockies are getting a consistent ground ball pitcher (55.1% for his career). Read more about these changes in a this article by Joelle Milholm.

Add to that Noah Davis and Gavin Hollowell, and the Rockies appear to be in better shape than they were for much of 2023. Schmidt has said he hopes Márquez will return after the All-Star Break.

Is this going to be a rotation that strikes fear into its opponents? Probably not. But it should mark an improvement over most of last season.

They Have Two-thirds of an Outstanding Outfield

Gold Glove winner Brenton Doyle was one of the best center fielders in baseball last year, and he’s making a case for himself as the best in Rockies history. Similarly, Nolan Jones has taken to playing the outfield like he’s spent his career there (though he was clear at RockiesFest that he’s still focused on mastering the position). Neither Jones nor Doyle started the season with the Rockies, but by September, they were being featured on highlight reels.

In this respect, the Rockies are ahead of their 2023 selves that began the season with Yonathan Daza and Jurickson Profar in the outfield.

Who will play right field? That’s a question that remains unanswered though the Rockies have some intriguing options (e.g., Sean Bouchard, Hunter Goodman, and Michael Toglia in addition to players on the farm).

This part of the team is stronger than it was at this point in 2023. If Doyle can find his swing — and he had made adjustments by the end of the season— the Rockies may see more offensive power as well.

Ezequiel Tovar Should Improve Offensively

It was a good season for the rookie, who finished the season as a Gold Glove finalist and saw some offensive improvement. With a season of experience, he should build on that in 2024. Bud Black has said they expect him to become a greater threat on the base paths and do more offensive damage.

Like Doyle and Jones, Tovar is no longer a rookie, which should show in his 2024 game.

They Have a Better Sense of Their Prospects

In 2023, the Rockies saw a lot of players, especially pitchers, and now they have an improved understanding of what’s developing on the farm — and what they need to look for in making trades. For example, Evan Justice and Victor Vodnik were rookie pitchers who made their MLB debut as did position player Hunter Goodman, one of the most exciting prospects on the farm (even if his limited time with the Rockies was uneventful).

That trend should continue in 2024 with more players getting a shot.

The Prospects Are Coming

Of all the panels I attended at RockiesFest, none was more exciting that the conversation with seven Rockies prospects, which I wrote about here.

Bill Schmidt’s theme in every panel I attended was that the coming season was devoted to giving prospects opportunities and that he was excited to watch those players show what they could do.

Thompson, Veen, Romo, and Hill all have invitations to Spring Training, and we will surely see some of them at Coors Field before the season ends.

Closing Thoughts

It’s important to keep in mind that 2024 is a year in which the Rockies are preparing for their window of contention to open, so this season is less about wins and losses than gaining experience.

I’m not ready to make my 2024 predictions yet, but I am ready to predict this is not a 100-loss team. And if Rockies fans will watch with an eye to the future, there is much to be excited about.

Last Week on Purple Row

We covered a lot of ground.

Kenneth Weber wrote about whether the Rockies should consider trading for Christian Yellich; Skyler Timmins began our series on the challenges of playing defense at elevation; and Evan Lang cautioned the Rockies about repeating some of their 2023 mistakes.

What I’m Reading

• Shane Monaghan’s “An Ode to Beltin’ Helton” (5280 Magazine) — Rockies fans everywhere rejoiced when learning that Helton would be inducted. Monaghan explains why it matters to him.
• Louis Taggart’s “4 Under-the-Radar Players Who Could Make Their Debut in 2024”https://blakestreetbanter.com/2024/02/07/under-the-radar-players-who-could-make-their-debut-in-2024/ (Blake Street Banter) — As I just wrote, there’s much to be excited about in 2024.

Thanks for reading, everyone. Ghost is becoming more familiar, so thank you for working with me on this as I sort things out.

Look for a new Rockies Pitch next Friday.

Renee