The Colorado Rockies Are Winning? What Happened?

Remember when the Colorado Rockies were breaking all those records for historically bad teams?

There was this on Opening Day:

And this on May 1:

I could go on, but you get the idea: This team has not been good.

And then, something changed, and they began winning, starting by sweeping the Texas Rangers on May 10-12 followed by a road sweep of the San Diego Padres. And with the exception of a disastrous stop in San Francisco, the Rockies have been playing good baseball.

What happened? It’s a question worth exploring, especially as the Rockies travel to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers.

The Starting Rotation Stabilized

The rotation has a collective 5.30 ERA, which is the worst in baseball, but those numbers include some truly horrific outings, including a terrible April-May. Case in point, in their first 29 games, the starting pitchers had an ERA of 6.49. Contrast that with their 26 games in May when the Rockies pitchers dropped their starter ERA to 4.06.

Now consider some individual performances.

Austin Gomber’s 2.75 ERA is the 18th best in baseball while Cal Quantrill’s 4.35 ranks 45th. When looking at ERA-, Gomber has earned an impressive 60 (11th), and Quantrill’s 77 is 25th. These two pitchers have provided consistency and length to a floundering rotation that has settled in over the last two weeks. (A case in point is Ty Blach’s work over his last two starts).

Manager Bud Black is fond is saying that it all begins with the rotation, and he’s not wrong.

The Offense Heated up

This is, I think, an overlooked story, but the Rockies offense is improving. Ryan McMahon has hit 10 home runs, which puts him with some of the home run leaders of MLB. Similarly, Brenton Doyle has stolen 14 bases, which puts him in a tie for fourth place. (His 107 wRC+ should not be overlooked.) Doyle is becoming the hitter the Rockies needed him to be.

Then there’s Ezequiel Tovar whose 17 doubles tied his for third among all MLB players. He’s still striking out too much, but Tovar is making productive contact in his at-bats.

Similarly, Elias Díaz continues to be effective at the plate (104 wRC+) as is Jacob Stallings (145 wRC+). I wrote last week that the catching corps as been strong, and that hasn’t changed.

It helps, too, that Brendan Rodgers and Charlie Blackmon are beginning to warm up. In April, Blackmon slashed .221/.277/.325 and drove in six runs. Contrast tat with May when May, he’s gotten 15 RBI and is slashing .260/.349/.411.

Similarly, Rodgers — a notoriously slow starter — has improved from .265 in April to .291 in May. Plus, he’s on an eight-game hitting streak.

They’re making contact and producing runs. Is it enough for a team that plays half its games at Coors Field? No, but it’s a move in the right direction.

The Defense Improved

Back in early May, I wrote about the Rockies disappointing defense. Since then, things have improved.

Their 24 errors rank 26th in MLB, a marked improvement over their standing just under a month ago.

Tovar’s five DRS ranking him in the top 15 among all MLB players. He’s followed by Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers, and Jake Cave with three DRS. These are clear improvements. Tovar has four outs above average while Rodgers and Doyle each have two.

In short, this is a team becoming more defensively centered, and a team that has better defense takes the pressure of a stressed pitching staff.

Closing Thoughts

Whether the Rockies can continue to produce at this level remains uncertain. Pitcher fatigue at elevation is a real thing, and the bullpen remains tenuous. No lead is ever safe.

Still, for a Rockies team that floundered early, they’ve righted the ship. Now they need to carry this momentum into June.

What I’m Reading

• Dan Szymborski’s “The ZiPS Two-month Standings Update” (FanGraphs) — Spoiler: ZiPS now sees the Rockies as being slightly less bad in 2024.

• Thomas Harding’s “Jones Being Smart with Recovery: 'I Want to Be Involved'” (MLB.com) — Jones discusses his rehab. (He’s back in Albuquerque for a tune-up). A healthy Nolan Jones would go a long way in stabilizing the Rockies.

• Renee Dechert’s “Jordan Beck Adjusts to the Ups and Downs of Big League Life” (Purple Row) — I try to promote the writing of others here, but Beck was good enough to talk with me about where he is now, and I wanted to share it.

Closing Thoughts

If you’re a Rockies fans, May was certainly better than April. The question now is if the team can continue on a winning trajectory. (Look, winning series with the Rangers, Padres, Phillies, and Guardians is no small accomplishment.)

I hope the younger players are becoming more comfortable with playing baseball at elevation — and warmer weather surely helps.

We’ll know soon enough if this was a blip or a trend.

As always, thanks for reading —

Renee

Rockies Pitch is a newsletter that focuses on Colorado Rockies baseball and tries to tell the stories no one else is.