Should the Colorado Rockies Trade Ryan McMahon?

Yesterday, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors posed the question: Would the Colorado Rockies be willing to move third baseman Ryan McMahon at the trade deadline?

As Franco writes:

In aggregate, McMahon looks like a solid bet to accrue three to four wins above replacement per season over the next couple years. That’s a player who should appeal to teams looking for help at third base. (The Cubs, Yankees and Blue Jays are a few speculative candidates.) Whether to seriously shop him is probably the biggest question that Colorado GM Bill Schmidt and his staff will face this summer.

It’s a fair question given that the Rockies, despite currently being the hottest team in baseball, are probably not postseason contenders. Some of their young talent is beginning to emerge (e.g., Jordan Beck, Brenton Doyle, and Ezequiel Tovar), and the Rockies long-term needs are becoming clearer: more pitching.

As an organization, the Rockies have been reticent to move some of their best players, even if their best days are probably behind them or they are unlikely to return. (Cases in point: Daniel Bard, Trevor Story, and Jon Gray.)

Currently, McMahon, 29, is in the third year of a six-year, $70 million contract that has him earning just under $12 million/year with $16 million in the final year. So a McMahon trade would not be a rental but a long-term commitment.

It’s a question worth exploring.

How good has McMahon been in 2024?

Very.

Currently, McMahon’s wRC+ of 129 leads all Rockies with more than 100 PAs. He’s slashing .304/.384/.472 and leading the Rockies in home runs with six.

Given that his career wRC+ is 91, it’s clear he’s off to a solid start. Whether he can continue at this pace remains unknown given that he’s had a reputation as a streaky hitter with a tendency to chase. (In 2023, he set the record for strikeouts by a Rockie with 198.)

He made swing adjustments during the offseason, a point he explained Thomas Harding during Spring Training:

“For me, shorter,” McMahon said. “You’ve heard me say that plenty of times, but I really want to cut down on my swings and misses. I’ve done a good job so far and it’s something I’ll try to keep moving forward.

“Shorten up my swing, being handsy. … Last year when I was going good, it was a lot of the same swing thoughts.”

(Read an in-depth analysis of his swing mechanics here.)

He’s also hitting the ball harder. McMahon has made “hard contact” on 55% of the batted he has hit, a substantial improvement over his 2023 average of 44.2%. His 12.4% Barrell% is a career high.

Among third baseman, McMahon’s 1.1 fWAR ties him for sixth. He is tied for second with Isaac Paredes when considering OBP.

McMahon’s inconsistency was always a drawback in his offense, keeping him from reaching the next level of his game. Early indications suggest that has changed, which make him an increasingly attractive trade candidate.

That’s the offense, but how’s his defense?

McMahon’s defensive chops have never been in question — he’s a three-time Gold Glove finalist for a reason.

Although McMahon’s defense got off to a rough start in 2024, things have since evened out, and he has three Defensive Runs Saved. (Matt Chapman leads all third baseman with five. He and Chapman both have six errors, which lead all third basemen.)

He is not as strong in Outs Above Average (-2) though his UZR of 2.0 is second only to Matt Chapman’s 3.1.

In short, McMahon continues to be a stellar defender at the hot corner.

According to Franco, the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Chicago Cubs are possible trade partners.

Will the Rockies trade him?

For a number of reasons, that seems unlikely.

Watch any Rockies game, and it’s clear that McMahon has become the leader of an increasingly young infield. (If you’ve followed the Rockies since McMahon’s call-up, it’s a reminder of his growth as a player when he was learning from Nolan Arenado.) The Rockies like leaders, especially as they bring up younger players.

Moreover, as long as Bud Black manages the Rockies and they continue to emphasize pitching-to-contact, it would seem out of character for them to move a proven third baseman.

In addition, it’s not clear that there’s any obvious successor. One choice would be Elehuris Montero, but his limited innings at third last year did not go well. Another would be Aaron Schunk, but the Rockies have not appeared eager to promote him in the way they have some other prospects — and they seem to be using Schunk more as a utility player. Two other successors would be Warming Bernabel (Double-A Hartford) and Kyle Karros (High-A Spokane). Both are 21 and not yet MLB ready.

But here are two players I do think the Rockies will consider moving: Brendan Rodgers and Elias Díaz, especially if both continue to be effective offensively. (Since we’re through April, it’s likely we’re seeing the real Brendan Rodgers.) Moreover, given that Jacob Stallings has shown himself to be an able backup catcher while Drew Romo continues to improve in Albuquerque, it seems very possible that Díaz will finish with another team.

Meanwhile, the Rockies’ first base and outfield dilemmas continue: They have too many players in those positions. Schmidt said at RockiesFest that they would be making some hard decisions, and that’s going to happen. It’s possible some of those players would be included in any trade.

Expect the Rockies to be active at the deadline, but Ryan McMahon will still have a locker in the Coors Field clubhouse.

Down on the Farm

Adael Amador ranks third on MLB’s list of “Top 11 Switching-Hitting Prospects.” Amador, 21, is still in Double-A Hartford and has gotten off to a slow start, but he’s got a career that has him taking more walks than striking out. (It’s another reason the Rockies may look to trade Brendan Rodgers.)

What I’m Reading

• Kenneth Weber’s “The Anatomy of the Rockies’ Recent Hot Stretch” (Purple Row) — Weber details what he thinks is going in with the hottest team in MLB. (You can read my take here.)

• Patrick Saunders’ “As Kris Bryant Attempts to Resurrect Rockies Career, Former MVP Can’t Hide His Frustration: “It’s Through the Roof”” (Denver Post) — Bryant details his struggle to remain healthy.

• Shaun O’Neill’s “'An Absolute Gamer': Quantrill Deals Against Former Club” (MLB.com) — Confession: I was skeptical about the Rockies’ decision to trade for Quantrill. Reader, I was wrong. (Cal, I apologize for doubting.) O’Neill talked with the Rockies’ new ace about what’s working.

• Just watch this:

Closing Thoughts

And that’s it for this week — and what a week it was!

I don’t think the Rockies can maintain this winning pace, but what do I know? Hopefully, they can.

As always, thanks for reading —

Renee

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