How Are “The Kids” Faring in Year Two?
For the last three years, fans have begged the Colorado Rockies to “let the kids play.”
Last year, the Rockies gave fans what they wanted with three rookies catching national attention: Brenton Doyle, Nolan Jones, and Ezequiel Tovar.
We’re now 26 games into the 2024 season, and it’s worth exploring how the youngsters are performing in Year Two as we slowly begin to move out of small-sample-size territory for 2024.
Their sophomore years are, it turns out, unfolding quite differently — and the changes are striking and worth exploring.
(I’ve decided to keep Elehuris Montero out of this discussion since he only appeared in 85 games in 2023. The other three players saw more playing time and, thus, provide a more representative sample.)
Remind Me: How Were These Players in 2023?
Let’s start with FanGraphs for this one.
The takeaways are fairly clear: Nolan Jones had an exceptional rookie season, both offensively and defensively — the the defensive accolades are especially notable given that Jones was learning to play the outfield on the run. He finished the season as the Rockies’ most valuable player in terms of fWAR and rWAR. That Jones finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting is not a coincidence.
All signs suggested he was beginning what looked to be an ideal Rockies career with lots of speed and power complimented by a plus arm.
Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar, on the other hand, had very different rookie seasons.
Doyle quickly became an elite defender, eventually winning a Gold Glove and finishing the season with the highest Fielding Run Value in MLB. Ryan Spilborghs and Cory Sullivan, both former Rockies outfielders, have maintained that Doyle is the best center fielder in Rockies history. Given that Coors possesses one of the most challenging outfields in baseball, this is no small compliment.
His bat, however, left much to be desired. A wRC+ of 43 (100 is average) and a K% of 35.0% are unsustainable in MLB. And while Doyle’s speed and ability to steal bases was unquestioned, his inability to get on base consistently inhibited his effectiveness. For Doyle to become a serious MLB player, he had to become, at a minimum, a league-average hitter.
Like Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar also had a brilliant defensive season and was a Gold Glove finalist — again, a significant accomplishment for a player in his rookie season.
Offensively, he was better than Doyle, but not by much — 70 wRC+. He struck out less (27.0% K%), but he kept missing those down-and-away breaking balls. That the hit tool was there became clear — he hit 37 doubles (a Rockies record for a rookie). But the consistency of a next-level big leaguer was missing.
So as the three went into the offseason, their assignments were clear: Jones needed to pick up where he left off while Doyle and Tovar needed to improve at the plate.
Did They Make the Necessary Adjustments?
Two did; one has not yet.
Let’s start with the numbers, again from FanGraphs.
Clearly, Tovar and Doyle have made significant adjustments.
Tovar is still striking out too much (30.6%), but his hit numbers are better, and he has a 110 wRC+. He’s getting on base — including six doubles — and he’s stealing more bases. If this development continues, he is on the cusp of becoming an elite shortstop.
Similarly, Doyle has become a new hitter. (Skyler Timmins has a good breakdown of his swing changes here.) That he began making them during the 2023 season makes them even more remarkable. Doyle has already hit three home runs and brought his K% down to 28.9%. (Baby steps, but still.) Notice, too, that he’s slugging .527. And he’s hit safely in eight of his last nine games.
The early numbers suggest this is more than just a hot streak: Doyle seems to have changed his game and become a more confident hitter.
Then there’s Nolan Jones.
This is surely not the start he hoped for: a 37.5% K%; an SLG of .250; a wRC+ of 16; and a negative fWAR.
Probably, the result is due to several factors. Pitchers have adjusted, and he’s seeing fewer good pitches to hit. In turn, this has probably led to him ”pressing” a bit. And he’s seen some bad luck in terms of the calls he’s receiving. (Skyler Timmins has more here.)
Will Jones get better? Yes. He’s a skilled hitter, and he’ll make adjustments. It’s part of the process of becoming an MLB player.
At this point in the season, the kids are all right.
Hang It in the Denver Art Museum
Yesterday’s game between the Rockies and the San Diego Padres was one for the ages. Here’s the Live Leaderboard.
It’s only one game, but it’s also the mark of a young team beginning to find itself — and the Rockies season has been grim enough that fans will take their wins where they can.
Next stop: Mexico City!
What I’m Reading
• Renee Dechert’s “Should Rockies Fans Boo Kris Bryant?” (Purple Row) — The piece led to some spirited discussion.
• Skyler Timmins’ “The Rockies in Relation to Stability and Change” (Purple Row) — Timmins’ examines the Rockies’ general aversion to change.
• Luke Zahlman’s “Austin Gomber's Clarity on Who He Is as a Pitcher Guides His Success for Rockies” (Denver Gazette) — Gomber is finally settling into his place in the Rockies rotation.
• Leo Morganstern’s “The 2024 MLB Mexico City Series: Everything You Need To Know” (Just Baseball) — Here’s your weekend guide.
• Olivia Bosnick’s “Liberal Art Student Marshal Finds Academic Success Following Baseball Career” (Penn State University) — This story about Dexter Fowler is just cool.
Closing Note
As the Rockies travel to Mexico City this weekend to face the Houston Astros, we should see some serious hitting given that the elevation there is 7349 feet. (Coors indeed!)
The Astros (7-19) are doing some struggling of their own, so this should be a fun weekend of baseball.
Enjoy!
As always, thanks for reading —
Renee
Rockies Pitch is a newsletter that focuses on Colorado Rockies baseball and tries to tell the stories no one else is about one of the quirkiest teams in MLB.
