Comparing Four Colorado Rockies with Where They Were a Year Ago

Yesterday, my Purple Row colleague Kenneth Weber wrote a piece I’ve been thinking about. In it, he compared the 2023 Colorado Rockies with the 2024 Colorado Rockies, concluding that this year’s team is on pace to be worse than last year’s team, despite their recent winning streak.

This led me to wonder about the individual performance of some players: How did they compare to where they were a year ago?

The analysis became complicated by a few factors, most notably being changes in the Rockies lineup. Kris Bryant was injured a lot least season, and that’s still the case today, so there’s no point in including him. Elehuris Montero was jockeying between Triple-A Albuquerque and Denver last season, so that doesn’t lend itself to a good comparison. Nolan Jones was hurt at the beginning of 2024 while Brendan Rodgers missed the beginning of 2023 due to injuries.

In other words, making some direct comparisons on the position-player side is difficult. Clearly, Brenton Doyle has improved, but since I wrote about that on Tuesday, I’m not going to rehash it here. So I decided to compare four players who’ve seen fairly consistent playing time:

• Charlie Blackmon

• Elias Díaz

• Ryan McMahon

• Ezequiel Tovar

(Apologies in advance for the amateur graphics. Time has been short this week.)

Charlie Blackmon

Much was made of bringing back 37-year-old fan favorite Chuck Nazty in 2024. The Rockies were willing to spend $13 million ($15 million with incentives) to do it. It’s impossible to measure what happens in the clubhouse, but how has Blackmon been on the field? Here’s what Baseball Reference shows when comparing Blackmon’s early months of the season.

I’ve included June simply because it was available, but those numbers are clearly small sample size, so I’ll force on the April-May data.

At this point, Charlie Blackmon is having a notably worse 2024 than he did 2023. His OPS+ is down as are his numbers across most categories, with the exception of stolen bases and RBI, which are up by one.

We’re only one-third through the 2024 season, so all of this could change. However, at this point — at least for his on-the-field performance — Blackmon’s contract does not appear to have been a wise expenditure for the Rockies.

Elias Díaz

Last year’s All-Star Game MVP has a tradition of being better in the first half than in the second. That trend continues in 2024, according to Baseball Reference.

Even though he has been a stalwart of the Rockies lineup this season, Díaz’s offensive numbers are down a bit in 2024 compared to 2023. (Again, June lacks sufficient data to be meaningful.) He’s hit into fewer double-players this season, but the numbers, overall, show a slight decline.

There are rumors that the Rockies might try to trade Díaz, who is in the final year of a three-year contract, and the declining numbers suggest that the Rockies would be wise to do this should the opportunity arise. After all, this year is consistent with Díaz’s career, his offensive effectiveness will show a marked decline after the midpoint of the season.

Ryan McMahon

The eye test would suggest that McMahon is better this year than he was last, and Baseball Reference indicates the eye test is correct.

McMahon was notably better in April and March — his OPS+ increased significantly — with a decline in May. Still, he remains above average. He also hit two more home runs in May 2024 than he did in 2023, and notice that his strikeouts are down from last year. This is largely due to offseason swing adjustments.

If he can remain consistently above-average, it will be a win for the Rockies though it seems less likely the Rockies would trade him even though there is interest from other teams.

Ezequiel Tovar

Tovar’s rookie season saw hims performing defensive wizardry at short while struggling at the plate. Have his offensive fortunes changed? Here’s what Baseball Reference shows.

Clearly, Tovar got off to a much, much better start in 2024 — hit OPS+ was over 100 points higher. In May, he’s roughly 40 points better. His doubles are up as are his home runs. In short, Tovar continues to evolve as a player. However, his strikeouts remain disconcertingly high. If anything, that part of his game has gotten worse.

He’s come a long way, but there’s still room for improvement.

So what does it mean?

Clearly, this is reductionist, but there are a few preliminary conclusions.

Ryan McMahon and Ezequiel Tovar are better than they were a year ago. The question is if they can continue this throughout the season. In addition, Tovar’s strikeout problem remains unaddressed. Maybe, like Trevor Story, this will just be part of Tovar’s game, but it’s worth watching.

Charlie Blackmon and Elias Díaz are having worse seasons, Blackmon notably so. Díaz continues to be above average, and his appearance on a bad team makes his performance more valuable.

Instability in the lineup and a continued lack of consistency continue to plague this team. Brendan Rodgers, Kris Bryant, and Nolan Jones cannot stay healthy. Add to that the injuries of Jordan Beck and Sean Bouchard. And Jake Cave, who sees consistent playing time, brings little to the offense.

In addition, there is a lack of consistent productivity at first base when it should be a slugging foundation for the offense. Neither Kris Bryant, Elehuris Montero, or Michael Toglia can truly earn the position.

Are there bright spots in the Rockies offense this season?

Absolutely.

But the early numbers suggest it won’t be enough.

About Last Night

I’m always here for a jaw-droppingly-good catch, and last night, that honor went to Michael Toglia.

HEY, MIKE!

What I’m Reading

• Sean Keeler’s “As Rockies’ Kris Bryant heads back to injured list, fans are ready to move on: ‘He can’t handle the game anymore’” (Denver Post) — The similarities between KB and Russell Wilson and Ian Desmond are emerging.

• Joelle Milholm’s “The Importance of Latin American Roots in Rockies Starting Pitching” (Purple Row) — In the first of a two-part series, Milholm considers the history of Latin American starters in the history of the Colorado Rockies and examines a potential pitching trend.

• Patrick Lyons’ “Ezequiel Tovar Is Way Closer to Elly De La Cruz in Value Than You’d Think” (Just Baseball) — Lyons compares the two shortstops.

Closing Thoughts

That should do it for this week.

The Rockies got off to a good start in their seven-game road trip. Here’s hoping they can keep adding to their win total.

As always, thanks for reading.

Renee

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