Colorado Rockies 2024 Preview
Happy Opening Day!
Since it‘s the first full day of the 2024 baseball season, publishing Rockies Pitch a day early seemed appropriate.
Before turning to the Colorado Rockies 2024 season, it’s worth taking a step back to remember what happened in 2023. Their 103-loss season — the first 100-loss season in franchise history — got all the attention, but the conditions that led to that season merit reviewing because they directly affect the team’s approach to 2024.
The injury bug arrived early in Rockies spring training, putting second baseman Brendan Rodgers and outfielder Sean Bouchard out for much of the season.
And then things got bad.
Lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath underwent Tommy John surgery before catastrophe stuck the starting rotation: Both Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela were also lost to Tommy John surgery, and in May, Ryan Feltner suffered a skull fracture after being hit by a Nick Castellanos line drive. Their pitching was always tenuous; by June 1, it was decimated. The season saw the Rockies struggling to find pitching, and by the end of the September, the Rockies had used 17 starters, a team record.
Any commentary on the 2023 Rockies that ignores the role of injuries misses a key factor.
To the Rockies’ credit, they leaned into it. They played prospects — a lot of prospects — and three of them, Ezequiel Tovar, Nolan Jones, and Brenton Doyle, emerged as key pieces moving forward.
General manager Bill Schmidt also made deals — a fairly “unRockies” move — always for pitching. The Rockies traded Pierce Johnson, Brad Hand, Mike Moustakas, CJ Cron, and Randal Grichuk. In addition, they brought in more pitchers through the draft. In total, the organization added 37 pitchers last year.
That’s a long way of saying that as bad as the Rockies were in 2023, they accomplished much of what they need to accomplish last season and during the winter, despite being criticized for doing too little.
When looking at the Rockies in 2024, they should be evaluated on their success in continuing their rebuild.
How was the Rockies’ offseason?
Not to be a contrarian, but the Colorado Rockies had a pretty good offseason.
During the final home series in September, they announced signing outfielder Charlie Blackmon to a one-year, $15 million extension. That they overpaid (by a lot) is clear, but Blackmon’s leadership in what quickly became a young clubhouse is undeniable. Every player praises Blackmon for helping them.
"I was talking to my dad the day after Charlie signed his contract and I said I would've signed him for another 10 years," Nolan Jones said at RockiesFest. "Having Charlie around changes our clubhouse. He's the first person at the field and the last person to leave.”
Then the Rockies turned their attention to pitching. They needed short-term fixes. After all, Márquez and Senzatela will be back, and there’s a lot of young talent on the farm. But they have to get through 2024 first.
With this in mind, they traded with the Cleveland Guardians for pitcher Cal Quantrill and signed pitcher Dakota Hudson after he was non-tendered by the St. Louis Cardinals. (Spring training games suggest that Quantrill is the better signing.) The also brought in backup catcher Jacob Stallings and lefty reliever Jalen Beeks. These are all one-year contracts.
In addition, they traded for OF/1B Jake Cave and OF/SS Greg Jones. There were additional signings — including more pitchers that we will probably see as the summer unfolds. Then on Sunday, they announced an extension with Ezequiel Tovar.
Remember: This is another season that needs to focus on the Rockies letting the kids play and getting an inventory of what they have. These moves — as quotidian as they are — are consistent with that goal.
The Rockies are also operating under considerable uncertainty with their television contract. (Read more about that here.) The Rockies have lost $57 million of guaranteed revenue. That they would be conservative in the offseason makes sense. It also explains their willingness to overpay Blackmon. You really have to go to a Rockies game to experience how popular he is with fans, but owner Dick Monfort is going to use every trick he can to get fans engaged.
But enough preamble. Let’s get into the analysis.
What’s the Rockies’ projected lineup?
This would seem to be a straightforward topic. However, it’s the Rockies, so nothing is clear.
Schmidt and manager Bud Black have discussed utilizing a “six-man platoon.” This would involve Kris Bryant, who will be moved to first, Charlie Blackmon, the everyday designated hitter, and some combination of Elehuris Montero (1B/DH), and Michael Toglia (1B/OF/DH).
Where Bryant plays, 1B or RF, will be determined by the performance of other players. (Confused yet?) Black sees Bryant’s versatility as key in the six-man platoon. Expect Black to play the hottest hitters.
Here’s what the Rockies will look like as the season starts:
| Colorado Rockies Projected Lineup |
| Charlie Blackmon (DH) |
| Kris Bryant (RF/1B) |
| Nolan Jones (LF) |
| Brendan Rodgers (2B) |
| Ryan McMahon (3B) |
| Ezequiel Tovar (SS) |
| Elehuris Montero (1B/DH) or Michael Toglia (1B/OF) |
| Elias Díaz (C) |
| Brenton Doyle (CF) |
On the bench will be backup catcher Jacob Stallings, utility player Alan Trejo, and Jake Cave.
Blackmon’s skill, while less than it once was, is still good. Bryant needs to stay healthy. Jones will strive to avoid a sophomore slump. McMahon must become more consistent at the plate though he’s defensive work remains outstanding. Tovar and Doyle will work to improve offensively — and early spring training stats suggest they have. And if Montero is able to show the power he had in September, this will be an improved — if not exactly fearsome — lineup.
And there will be lots of young players making the trip to Coors Field from Triple-A Albuquerque.
What about the starting rotation?
Last season, the Rockies’ rotation finished the year with the worst ERA in baseball (5.68), and it’s entirely possible they’ll do that again in 2024 though the rotation look better initially and can expect Márquez to return in July.
The starting rotation will look like this: Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, and Dakota Hudson.
Freeland’s fastball is up a couple of ticks in spring training (92.4 mph in spring training after falling below 90 mph for the last two seasons), and he’s added a new pitch, so these are good signs.
None of this is especially inspiring, but it’s a continuation of last season as the Rockies heal up from injuries and inventory a raft of young pitchers from their farm system.
How’s the bullpen?
Not bad — and it wasn’t bad for the first half of last season until overuse wore it out.
Justin Lawrence (RHP) will close while Tyler Kinley (RHP) will be the set-up man. (Daniel Bard is still on the IL with a knee injury and will miss the start of the season.)
Add to that Nick Mears (RHP) and Jake Bird (RHP and one of the most-used relievers in baseball in 2023). Then there’s Jalen Beeks (LHP) as well as rookie Victor Vodnik (RHP).
Peter Lambert (RHP) and Anthony Molina (RHP) will work in long relief.
Gilbreath should be back early in the season.
This is a solid, if unflashy bullpen, and young players (e.g. Gavin Hollowell and Noah Davis) as well as veterans on MiLB contracts (e.g., John Curtiss, Chance Adams, Ty Blach, and Matt Koch) will surely be moving to Denver during the season.
Which prospects might help in 2024?
Here’s where things get interesting.
Sean Bouchard, who had a rough spring training, will begin the season in Albuquerque, but expect to see him in Denver before long.
Jordan Beck, a former University of Tennessee Volunteer, absolutely tore up spring training and will start the season in Albuquerque, but Black has said they expect him to debut at Coors Field soon. Add to that Hunter Goodman, Greg Jones, and Aaron Schunk. Also, look for catcher Drew Romo to make it to The Show late in the season.
Schmidt has said that the Rockies know they have too many outfielders and plan to move some of them when they have a better idea of who these players are and what the Rockies need.
What will a good season look like for the Rockies?
They won’t lose 100 games, and they won’t be the worst team in baseball.
Last year’s team wasn’t good, but those rotation injuries made it substantially worse. Plus, this is an excellent defensive team, and some young players (e.g., Doyle, Jones, and Tovar) are more seasoned than they were a year ago. These are not small things.
A good season for the Rockies will look as uninteresting as their offseason: It will focus on player development and making moves that are long-term investments. If Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar improve their offense, that’s good. If Jones builds on what he did last year, that’s excellent. If Brendan Rodgers establishes enough value to be moved at the trade deadline (making room for Adael Amador), that’s outstanding. If the Rockies determine whether first base belong to Toglia or Montero, that’s a win. If the Rockies can sort out some of those outfielders, that’s excellent.
And in addition to player development, the Rockies will need to stay healthy. Kris Bryant needs to play a full season, and the injured pitchers need to have successful rehabs.
In the end, 2024 is really just the prologue for 2025 when the Rockies’ window opens.
They need to spend this year wisely.
What I’m Reading
There was a lot of good stuff this week.
• Patrick Lyons did an insight preview for Just Baseball.
Patrick Lyons
• This piece by Jeff Passan on MLB payrolls is fascinating — and the ways in which the Rockies’ financial decisions do not make sense really stand out.
Jeff Passan
• I enjoyed this article on using MLB: The Show as a training platform.
Eno Sarris
Closing Thoughts
So, here are a few predictions.
• The Rockies will go 64-98 — This is a better team than they were last year.
• Kris Bryant stays healthy — And he wins the Comeback of the Year Award.
• Bud Black does not get a contract extension.
• The Rockies have one of the top-five defenses in baseball.
Whatever happens, days with baseball are better than days without baseball.
As always, thanks for reading.
Play ball!
Renee
